Severity of Respiratory Syncytial Virus vs COVID-19 and Influenza Among Hospitalized US Adults.

Importance: On June 21, 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended the first respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines for adults aged 60 years and older using shared clinical decision-making. Understanding the severity of RSV disease in adults can help guide this clinical decision-making. Objective: To describe disease severity among adults hospitalized with RSV and compare it with the severity of COVID-19 and influenza disease by vaccination status. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, adults aged 18 years and older admitted to the hospital with acute respiratory illness and laboratory-confirmed RSV, SARS-CoV-2, or influenza infection were prospectively enrolled from 25 hospitals in 20 US states from February 1, 2022, to May 31, 2023. Clinical data during each patient's hospitalization were collected using standardized forms. Data were analyzed from August to October 2023. Exposures: RSV, SARS-CoV-2, or influenza infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Using multivariable logistic regression, severity of RSV disease was compared with COVID-19 and influenza severity, by COVID-19 and influenza vaccination status, for a range of clinical outcomes, including the composite of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and in-hospital death. Results: Of 7998 adults (median [IQR] age, 67 [54-78] years; 4047 [50.6%] female) included, 484 (6.1%) were hospitalized with RSV, 6422 (80.3%) were hospitalized with COVID-19, and 1092 (13.7%) were hospitalized with influenza. Among patients with RSV, 58 (12.0%) experienced IMV or death, compared with 201 of 1422 unvaccinated patients with COVID-19 (14.1%) and 458 of 5000 vaccinated patients with COVID-19 (9.2%), as well as 72 of 699 unvaccinated patients with influenza (10.3%) and 20 of 393 vaccinated patients with influenza (5.1%). In adjusted analyses, the odds of IMV or in-hospital death were not significantly different among patients hospitalized with RSV and unvaccinated patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.82; 95% CI, 0.59-1.13; P = .22) or influenza (aOR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.82-1.76; P = .35); however, the odds of IMV or death were significantly higher among patients hospitalized with RSV compared with vaccinated patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (aOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.02-1.86; P = .03) or influenza disease (aOR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.62-4.86; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults hospitalized in this US cohort during the 16 months before the first RSV vaccine recommendations, RSV disease was less common but similar in severity compared with COVID-19 or influenza disease among unvaccinated patients and more severe than COVID-19 or influenza disease among vaccinated patients for the most serious outcomes of IMV or death.

SARS-CoV-2 shedding and evolution in patients who were immunocompromised during the omicron period: a multicentre, prospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infections in people who are immunocompromised might predict or source the emergence of highly mutated variants. The types of immunosuppression placing patients at highest risk for prolonged infection have not been systematically investigated. We aimed to assess risk factors for prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated intrahost evolution. METHODS: In this multicentre, prospective analysis, participants were enrolled at five US medical centres. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, were SARS-CoV-2-positive in the previous 14 days, and had a moderately or severely immunocompromising condition or treatment. Nasal specimens were tested by real-time RT-PCR every 2-4 weeks until negative in consecutive specimens. Positive specimens underwent viral culture and whole genome sequencing. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess factors associated with duration of infection. FINDINGS: From April 11, 2022, to Oct 1, 2022, 156 patients began the enrolment process, of whom 150 were enrolled and included in the analyses. Participants had B-cell malignancy or anti-B-cell therapy (n=18), solid organ transplantation or haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT; n=59), AIDS (n=5), non-B-cell malignancy (n=23), and autoimmune or autoinflammatory conditions (n=45). 38 (25%) participants were real-time RT-PCR-positive and 12 (8%) were culture-positive 21 days or longer after initial SARS-CoV-2 detection or illness onset. Compared with the group with autoimmune or autoinflammatory conditions, patients with B-cell dysfunction (adjusted hazard ratio 0·32 [95% CI 0·15-0·64]), solid organ transplantation or HSCT (0·60 [0·38-0·94]), and AIDS (0·28 [0·08-1·00]) had longer duration of infection, defined as time to last positive real-time RT-PCR test. There was no significant difference in the non-B-cell malignancy group (0·58 [0·31-1·09]). Consensus de novo spike mutations were identified in five individuals who were real-time RT-PCR-positive longer than 56 days; 14 (61%) of 23 were in the receptor-binding domain. Mutations shared by multiple individuals were rare (<5%) in global circulation. INTERPRETATION: In this cohort, prolonged replication-competent omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections were uncommon. Within-host evolutionary rates were similar across patients, but individuals with infections lasting longer than 56 days accumulated spike mutations, which were distinct from those seen globally. Populations at high risk should be targeted for repeated testing and treatment and monitored for the emergence of antiviral resistance. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

SARS-CoV-2 shedding and evolution in immunocompromised hosts during the Omicron period: a multicenter prospective analysis.

Background: Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infections in immunocompromised hosts may predict or source the emergence of highly mutated variants. The types of immunosuppression placing patients at highest risk for prolonged infection and associated intrahost viral evolution remain unclear. Methods: Adults aged ≥18 years were enrolled at 5 hospitals and followed from 4/11/2022 - 2/1/2023. Eligible patients were SARS-CoV-2-positive in the previous 14 days and had a moderate or severely immunocompromising condition or treatment. Nasal specimens were tested by rRT-PCR every 2-4 weeks until negative in consecutive specimens. Positive specimens underwent viral culture and whole genome sequencing. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess factors associated with duration of infection. Results: We enrolled 150 patients with: B cell malignancy or anti-B cell therapy (n=18), solid organ or hematopoietic stem cell transplant (SOT/HSCT) (n=59), AIDS (n=5), non-B cell malignancy (n=23), and autoimmune/autoinflammatory conditions (n=45). Thirty-eight (25%) were rRT-PCR-positive and 12 (8%) were culture-positive ≥21 days after initial SARS-CoV-2 detection or illness onset. Patients with B cell dysfunction had longer duration of rRT-PCR-positivity compared to those with autoimmune/autoinflammatory conditions (aHR 0.32, 95% CI 0.15-0.64). Consensus (>50% frequency) spike mutations were identified in 5 individuals who were rRT-PCR-positive >56 days; 61% were in the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Mutations shared by multiple individuals were rare (<5%) in global circulation. Conclusions: In this cohort, prolonged replication-competent Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections were uncommon. Within-host evolutionary rates were similar across patients, but individuals with infections lasting >56 days accumulated spike mutations, which were distinct from those seen globally.

A Test of Haldane's Rule in Neodiprion Sawflies and Implications for the Evolution of Postzygotic Isolation in Haplodiploids.

AbstractHaldane's rule-a pattern in which hybrid sterility or inviability is observed in the heterogametic sex of an interspecific cross-is one of the most widely obeyed rules in nature. Because inheritance patterns are similar for sex chromosomes and haplodiploid genomes, Haldane's rule may apply to haplodiploid taxa, predicting that haploid male hybrids will evolve sterility or inviability before diploid female hybrids. However, there are several genetic and evolutionary mechanisms that may reduce the tendency of haplodiploids to obey Haldane's rule. Currently, there are insufficient data from haplodiploids to determine how frequently they adhere to Haldane's rule. To help fill this gap, we crossed a pair of haplodiploid hymenopteran species (Neodiprion lecontei and Neodiprion pinetum) and evaluated the viability and fertility of female and male hybrids. Despite considerable divergence, we found no evidence of reduced fertility in hybrids of either sex, consistent with the hypothesis that hybrid sterility evolves slowly in haplodiploids. For viability, we found a pattern opposite to that of Haldane's rule: hybrid females, but not males, had reduced viability. This reduction was most pronounced in one direction of the cross, possibly due to a cytoplasmic-nuclear incompatibility. We also found evidence of extrinsic postzygotic isolation in hybrids of both sexes, raising the possibility that this form or reproductive isolation tends to emerge early in speciation in host-specialized insects. Our work emphasizes the need for more studies on reproductive isolation in haplodiploids, which are abundant in nature but underrepresented in the speciation literature.

Risk factors for infection with influenza A(H3N2) virus on a US university campus, October-November 2021.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the specific dynamics of influenza introduction and spread in university settings is limited. METHODS: Persons with acute respiratory illness symptoms received influenza testing by molecular assay during October 6-November 23, 2022. Viral sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were conducted on nasal swab samples from case-patients. Case-control analysis of a voluntary survey of persons tested was used to identify factors associated with influenza; logistic regression was conducted to calculate odds ratios and 95% CIs. A subset of case-patients tested during the first month of the outbreak was interviewed to identify sources of introduction and early spread. RESULTS: Among 3268 persons tested, 788 (24.1%) tested positive for influenza; 744 (22.8%) were included in the survey analysis. All 380 sequenced specimens were influenza A (H3N2) virus clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2, suggesting rapid transmission. Influenza (OR [95% CI]) was associated with indoor congregate dining (1.43 [1.002-2.03]), attending large gatherings indoors (1.83 [1.26-2.66]) or outdoors (2.33 [1.64-3.31]), and varied by residence type (apartment with ≥1 roommate: 2.93 [1.21-7.11], residence hall room alone: 4.18 [1.31-13.31], or with roommate: 6.09 [2.46-15.06], or fraternity/sorority house: 15.13 [4.30-53.21], all compared with single-dwelling apartment). Odds of influenza were lower among persons who left campus for ≥1 day during the week before their influenza test (0.49 [0.32-0.75]). Almost all early cases reported attending large events. CONCLUSIONS: Congregate living and activity settings on university campuses can lead to rapid spread of influenza following introduction. Isolating following a positive influenza test or administering antiviral medications to exposed persons may help mitigate outbreaks.

Investigating Epidemiologic and Molecular Links Between Patients With Community- and Hospital-Acquired Influenza A: 2017-2018 and 2019-2020, Michigan.

Background: Hospital-acquired influenza virus infection (HAII) can cause severe morbidity and mortality. Identifying potential transmission routes can inform prevention strategies. Methods: We identified all hospitalized patients testing positive for influenza A virus at a large, tertiary care hospital during the 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 influenza seasons. Hospital admission dates, locations of inpatient service, and clinical influenza testing information were retrieved from the electronic medical record. Time-location groups of epidemiologically linked influenza patients were defined and contained ≥1 presumed HAII case (first positive ≥48 hours after admission). Genetic relatedness within time-location groups was assessed by whole genome sequencing. Results: During the 2017-2018 season, 230 patients tested positive for influenza A(H3N2) or unsubtyped influenza A including 26 HAIIs. There were 159 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 or unsubtyped influenza A-positive patients identified during the 2019-2020 season including 33 HAIIs. Consensus sequences were obtained for 177 (77%) and 57 (36%) of influenza A cases in 2017-2018 and 2019-2020, respectively. Among all influenza A cases, there were 10 time-location groups identified in 2017-2018 and 13 in 2019-2020; 19 of 23 groups included ≤4 patients. In 2017-2018, 6 of 10 groups had ≥2 patients with sequence data, including ≥1 HAII case. Two of 13 groups met this criteria in 2019-2020. Two time-location groups from 2017-2018 each contained 3 genetically linked cases. Conclusions: Our results suggest that HAIIs arise from outbreak transmission from nosocomial sources as well as single infections from unique community introductions.

Body size as a magic trait in two plant-feeding insect species.

When gene flow accompanies speciation, recombination can decouple divergently selected loci and loci conferring reproductive isolation. This barrier to sympatric divergence disappears when assortative mating and disruptive selection involve the same "magic" trait. Although magic traits could be widespread, the relative importance of different types of magic traits to speciation remains unclear. Because body size frequently contributes to host adaptation and assortative mating in plant-feeding insects, we evaluated several magic trait predictions for this trait in a pair of sympatric Neodiprion sawfly species adapted to different pine hosts. A large morphological dataset revealed that sawfly adults from populations and species that use thicker-needled pines are consistently larger than those that use thinner-needled pines. Fitness data from recombinant backcross females revealed that egg size is under divergent selection between the preferred pines. Lastly, mating assays revealed strong size-assortative mating within and between species in three different crosses, with the strongest prezygotic isolation between populations that have the greatest interspecific size differences. Together, our data support body size as a magic trait in pine sawflies and possibly many other plant-feeding insects. Our work also demonstrates how intraspecific variation in morphology and ecology can cause geographic variation in the strength of prezygotic isolation.

Rapid transmission and tight bottlenecks constrain the evolution of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Transmission bottlenecks limit the spread of novel mutations and reduce the efficiency of selection along a transmission chain. While increased force of infection, receptor binding, or immune evasion may influence bottleneck size, the relationship between transmissibility and the transmission bottleneck is unclear. Here we compare the transmission bottleneck of non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 lineages to those of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. We sequenced viruses from 168 individuals in 65 households. Most virus populations had 0-1 single nucleotide variants (iSNV). From 64 transmission pairs with detectable iSNV, we identify a per clade bottleneck of 1 (95% CI 1-1) for Alpha, Delta, and Omicron and 2 (95% CI 2-2) for non-VOC. These tight bottlenecks reflect the low diversity at the time of transmission, which may be more pronounced in rapidly transmissible variants. Tight bottlenecks will limit the development of highly mutated VOC in transmission chains, adding to the evidence that selection over prolonged infections may drive their evolution.

Household Transmission of Influenza A Viruses in 2021-2022.

Importance: Influenza virus infections declined globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of natural immunity from lower rates of influenza infection and documented antigenic changes in circulating viruses may have resulted in increased susceptibility to influenza virus infection during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Objective: To compare the risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts of patients with influenza during the 2021-2022 influenza season with risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts during influenza seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective study of influenza transmission enrolled households in 2 states before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2020) and in 4 US states during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Primary cases were individuals with the earliest laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in a household. Household contacts were people living with the primary cases who self-collected nasal swabs daily for influenza molecular testing and completed symptom diaries daily for 5 to 10 days after enrollment. Exposures: Household contacts living with a primary case. Main Outcomes and Measures: Relative risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in household contacts during the 2021-2022 season compared with prepandemic seasons. Risk estimates were adjusted for age, vaccination status, frequency of interaction with the primary case, and household density. Subgroup analyses by age, vaccination status, and frequency of interaction with the primary case were also conducted. Results: During the prepandemic seasons, 152 primary cases (median age, 13 years; 3.9% Black; 52.0% female) and 353 household contacts (median age, 33 years; 2.8% Black; 54.1% female) were included and during the 2021-2022 influenza season, 84 primary cases (median age, 10 years; 13.1% Black; 52.4% female) and 186 household contacts (median age, 28.5 years; 14.0% Black; 63.4% female) were included in the analysis. During the prepandemic influenza seasons, 20.1% (71/353) of household contacts were infected with influenza A(H3N2) viruses compared with 50.0% (93/186) of household contacts in 2021-2022. The adjusted relative risk of A(H3N2) virus infection in 2021-2022 was 2.31 (95% CI, 1.86-2.86) compared with prepandemic seasons. Conclusions and Relevance: Among cohorts in 5 US states, there was a significantly increased risk of household transmission of influenza A(H3N2) in 2021-2022 compared with prepandemic seasons. Additional research is needed to understand reasons for this association.

SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Diversity in Households Highlights the Challenges of Sequence-Based Transmission Inference.

The reliability of sequence-based inference of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission is not clear. Sequence data from infections among household members can define the expected genomic diversity of a virus along a defined transmission chain. SARS-CoV-2 cases were identified prospectively among 2,369 participants in 706 households. Specimens with a reverse transcription-PCR cycle threshold of ≤30 underwent whole-genome sequencing. Intrahost single-nucleotide variants (iSNV) were identified at a ≥5% frequency. Phylogenetic trees were used to evaluate the relationship of household and community sequences. There were 178 SARS-CoV-2 cases in 706 households. Among 147 specimens sequenced, 106 yielded a whole-genome consensus with coverage suitable for identifying iSNV. Twenty-six households had sequences from multiple cases within 14 days. Consensus sequences were indistinguishable among cases in 15 households, while 11 had ≥1 consensus sequence that differed by 1 to 2 mutations. Sequences from households and the community were often interspersed on phylogenetic trees. Identification of iSNV improved inference in 2 of 15 households with indistinguishable consensus sequences and in 6 of 11 with distinct ones. In multiple-infection households, whole-genome consensus sequences differed by 0 to 1 mutations. Identification of shared iSNV occasionally resolved linkage, but the low genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 limits the utility of "sequence-only" transmission inference. IMPORTANCE We performed whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from prospectively identified cases in three longitudinal household cohorts. In a majority of multi-infection households, SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences were indistinguishable, and they differed by 1 to 2 mutations in the rest. Importantly, even with modest genomic surveillance of the community (3 to 5% of cases sequenced), it was not uncommon to find community sequences interspersed with household sequences on phylogenetic trees. Identification of shared minority variants only occasionally resolved these ambiguities in transmission linkage. Overall, the low genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 limits the utility of "sequence-only" transmission inference. Our work highlights the need to carefully consider both epidemiologic linkage and sequence data to define transmission chains in households, hospitals, and other transmission settings.

Rapid transmission and tight bottlenecks constrain the evolution of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Transmission bottlenecks limit the spread of novel mutations and reduce the efficiency of natural selection along a transmission chain. Many viruses exhibit tight bottlenecks, and studies of early SARS-CoV-2 lineages identified a bottleneck of 1-3 infectious virions. While increased force of infection, host receptor binding, or immune evasion may influence bottleneck size, the relationship between transmissibility and the transmission bottleneck is unclear. Here, we compare the transmission bottleneck of non-variant-of-concern (non-VOC) SARS-CoV-2 lineages to those of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. We sequenced viruses from 168 individuals in 65 multiply infected households in duplicate to high depth of coverage. In 110 specimens collected close to the time of transmission, within-host diversity was extremely low. At a 2% frequency threshold, 51% had no intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNV), and 42% had 1-2 iSNV. In 64 possible transmission pairs with detectable iSNV, we identified a bottleneck of 1 infectious virion (95% CI 1-1) for Alpha, Delta, and Omicron lineages and 2 (95% CI 2-2) in non-VOC lineages. The latter was driven by a single iSNV shared in one non-VOC household. The tight transmission bottleneck in SARS-CoV-2 is due to low genetic diversity at the time of transmission, a relationship that may be more pronounced in rapidly transmissible variants. The tight bottlenecks identified here will limit the development of highly mutated VOC in typical transmission chains, adding to the evidence that selection over prolonged infections in immunocompromised patients may drive their evolution.

Faster-haplodiploid evolution under divergence-with-gene-flow: Simulations and empirical data from pine-feeding hymenopterans.

Although haplodiploidy is widespread in nature, the evolutionary consequences of this mode of reproduction are not well characterized. Here, we examine how genome-wide hemizygosity and a lack of recombination in haploid males affects genomic differentiation in populations that diverge via natural selection while experiencing gene flow. First, we simulated diploid and haplodiploid "genomes" (500-kb loci) evolving under an isolation-with-migration model with mutation, drift, selection, migration and recombination; and examined differentiation at neutral sites both tightly and loosely linked to a divergently selected site. As long as there is divergent selection and migration, sex-limited hemizygosity and recombination cause elevated differentiation (i.e., produce a "faster-haplodiploid effect") in haplodiploid populations relative to otherwise equivalent diploid populations, for both recessive and codominant mutations. Second, we used genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data to model divergence history and describe patterns of genomic differentiation between sympatric populations of Neodiprion lecontei and N. pinetum, a pair of pine sawfly species (order: Hymenoptera; family: Diprionidae) that are specialized on different pine hosts. These analyses support a history of continuous gene exchange throughout divergence and reveal a pattern of heterogeneous genomic differentiation that is consistent with divergent selection on many unlinked loci. Third, using simulations of haplodiploid and diploid populations evolving according to the estimated divergence history of N. lecontei and N. pinetum, we found that divergent selection would lead to higher differentiation in haplodiploids. Based on these results, we hypothesize that haplodiploids undergo divergence-with-gene-flow and sympatric speciation more readily than diploids.

Oviposition traits generate extrinsic postzygotic isolation between two pine sawfly species.

BACKGROUND: Although empirical data indicate that ecological speciation is prevalent in nature, the relative importance of different forms of reproductive isolation and the traits generating reproductive isolation remain unclear. To address these questions, we examined a pair of ecologically divergent pine-sawfly species: while Neodiprion pinetum specializes on a thin-needled pine (Pinus strobus), N. lecontei utilizes thicker-needled pines. We hypothesized that extrinsic postzygotic isolation is generated by oviposition traits. To test this hypothesis, we assayed ovipositor morphology, oviposition behavior, and host-dependent oviposition success in both species and in F1 and backcross females. RESULTS: Compared to N. lecontei, N. pinetum females preferred P. strobus more strongly, had smaller ovipositors, and laid fewer eggs per needle. Additionally, we observed host- and trait-dependent reductions in oviposition success in F1 and backcross females. Hybrid females that had pinetum-like host preference (P. strobus) and lecontei-like oviposition traits (morphology and egg pattern) fared especially poorly. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these data indicate that maladaptive combinations of oviposition traits in hybrids contribute to extrinsic postzygotic isolation between N. lecontei and N. pinetum, suggesting that oviposition traits may be an important driver of divergence in phytophagous insects.